# Kyrgyzstan Water Atlas

> An interactive map of Kyrgyzstan's seasons, rivers and rain from 1879 to 2040, published by KG Labs
> Public Foundation (Bishkek) at https://kglabs.org/kyrgyzwateratlas/. One map joins the records behind
> the country's water: weather stations from 1879, river gauges from 1910, a 10 km climate grid from
> 1950 and 14 climate models to 2040. The page is published in English, Russian and Kyrgyz; add
> `?lang=ru` or `?lang=ky`.

Publisher: KG Labs Public Foundation, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan — https://kglabs.org/
Contact: azizkin@kglabs.org · +996 990 777 700 (WhatsApp)
Published: October 2026
Reuse: free to use with a reference to KG Labs Public Foundation and this page (see "Reuse" below)
Companion page: https://kglabs.org/kyrgyzglacierextinction/ (Kyrgyzstan's glaciers, year by year to 2100)

## Key numbers

- 54 weather stations, records from 1879 (NSIDC G02174)
- 24 quality-checked river gauges, records from 1910 (Kyrgyzhydromet yearbooks via CA-discharge)
- 2,149 climate-grid cells of 10 km over Kyrgyzstan, 920 months from February 1950 to September 2026 (ERA5-Land)
- 14 CMIP6 climate models × 3 emission paths (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), to 2040
- 8 river basins: Talas, Chu, Issyk-Kul, Tarim · Sary-Jaz, Naryn, Kara-Darya, South Fergana, Alai · Amu Darya

## Seasonal warming across Kyrgyzstan (°C against 1951–1980)

| Season | Last 10 years | Trend per decade | Warmest years | Around 2040, middle path (model range) |
|---|---:|---:|---|---:|
| Winter (Dec–Feb) | +1.5 | +0.20 | 2026, 2024, 2009 | +1.8 (1.5 to 2.1) |
| Spring (Mar–May) | +1.6 | +0.22 | 2022, 2026, 2025 | +1.7 (0.8 to 2.8) |
| Summer (Jun–Aug) | +1.1 | +0.15 | 1984, 2025, 2026 | +1.7 (1.3 to 2.1) |
| Autumn (Sep–Nov) | +0.7 | +0.16 | 1956, 2025, 2023 | +2.0 (1.4 to 2.8) |

National averages from the ERA5-Land 10 km grid, as the atlas computes them (October 2026). The 2040
column is the median of 14 CMIP6 models on SSP2-4.5, an 11-year average, not a forecast of single years.

## Questions and answers (English)

### What does the Kyrgyzstan Water Atlas show?
One map of Kyrgyzstan joins the records behind the country's water: weather stations from 1879,
river gauges from 1910, a 10 km climate grid from 1950 and 14 climate models to 2040. A reader can
move through the years and the four seasons, switch between temperature and precipitation, and
choose a low, middle or high emissions path for the projection years. Rivers above a gauge take its
colour in the years it reported.

### How much has Kyrgyzstan warmed since 1951–1980?
Averaged over the last ten years and across the country, winter is 1.5 °C warmer than in 1951–1980,
spring 1.6 °C, summer 1.1 °C and autumn 0.7 °C. Spring has changed fastest, at 0.22 °C per decade,
followed by winter at 0.20 °C, autumn at 0.16 °C and summer at 0.15 °C. Summer 2025 was 2.1 °C
warmer than 1951–1980.

### What do climate models project for Kyrgyzstan around 2040?
On the middle emissions path (SSP2-4.5), the median of 14 climate models puts Kyrgyzstan around 2040
at 1.8 °C above 1951–1980 in winter, 1.7 °C in spring, 1.7 °C in summer and 2.0 °C in autumn. The
widest model range is in spring, from 0.8 to 2.8 °C. Climate-model cells are 100–250 km wide; the
fine pattern inside them on the map is today's pattern carried forward.

### Why do some Kyrgyz rivers run higher in hot summers and others lower?
Rivers fed mostly by snow peak between April and early summer and run thinner in late summer after
a hot season. Rivers with more glacier ice in their basin peak in July and August and hold up in hot
summers, because the heat melts ice they will not get back. The atlas compares two rivers about
50 km apart: Ala-Archa, where ice covers 11 % of the basin, and Kara-Balta, where it covers under
1 %. In twelve gauges across Chuy, Jalal-Abad and Naryn, the snow-fed Jalal-Abad rivers peak in
April–June, Kara-Balta in June–July and the glacier-fed Chuy rivers in July–August.

### Does the atlas project river flow to 2040?
No. The KG Labs glacier model responds to warm summers about twice as strongly as the measured
glaciers do, so it has not passed its check, and no river-flow projection is shown.

### How reliable is the precipitation data for Kyrgyzstan?
Precipitation is where the evidence is weakest. Year to year the ERA5-Land grid tracks the rain
gauges closely (correlation 0.78 to 0.89 by season), but by the 1990s it runs 5 to 13 percentage
points wetter than the gauges at the same sites. The map therefore compares each year's
precipitation with its own surrounding 30 years, not with 1951–1980. For the future, the climate
models disagree on the direction of change: only 1 of 12 season-and-path ranges stays on one side
of zero.

### How was the climate grid checked against measurements?
ERA5-Land summer temperature anomalies agree with the weather stations at a correlation of 0.78
across 1,679 station-years. Station values from before relocations are left uncorrected. Where a
river gauge was changed (a break detected in its record), its flow is compared with its own usual
flow before and after the change, so a changed gauge is not read as a climate trend. Trends use
robust Theil–Sen slopes.

### How is the atlas built?
In five layers. Measurements: 54 weather stations and 24 river gauges. A climate grid: ERA5-Land,
2,149 cells of 10 km. Models: 14 global climate models on 3 emission paths, downscaled to each 10 km
cell by the change (delta) method; AI coding agents write and re-run the pipeline, and a second AI
model reviews major analyses. Interpretation: hydrology, checks on gauge and rain records, and
summaries by the eight river basins that drain Kyrgyzstan. The surface: one map, 1879–2040, in four
seasons, with every limit written under it.

### What climate and water data does KG Labs hold for Kyrgyzstan?
From KG Labs records, 7–13 October 2026: 152,143 river discharge readings from 116 stations back
to 1910, national data files for 11,481 glaciers, 2,592 glacial lakes tracked by satellite, 22,542
national glacier image tiles analysed by AI, and 46 research experiments run.

### How do I work with KG Labs on water and climate data?
KG Labs Public Foundation, based in Bishkek, works with government agencies, cities, universities,
water and energy operators, donors and international programmes on monitoring, data sharing and
research. Contact azizkin@kglabs.org or +996 990 777 700 on WhatsApp.

## Вопросы и ответы (русский)

### Что показывает водный атлас Кыргызстана?
Одна карта объединяет ряды, из которых складывается вода Кыргызстана: метеостанции с 1879 года,
гидропосты с 1910 года, климатическую сетку 10 км с 1950 года и 14 климатических моделей до 2040
года. Можно двигаться по годам и сезонам: где потеплело, какие годы были влажными или сухими и как
ответили реки. Русская версия: https://kglabs.org/kyrgyzwateratlas/?lang=ru

### Насколько потеплело в Кыргызстане?
Теплее стал каждый сезон, быстрее всех весна. За последние 10 лет по сравнению с 1951–1980 годами
зима теплее на 1,5 °C, весна на 1,6 °C, лето на 1,1 °C, осень на 0,7 °C. Весна теплеет на 0,22 °C
за десятилетие. Около 2040 года при среднем сценарии (SSP2-4.5) медиана 14 моделей даёт от +1,7 до
+2,0 °C к 1951–1980 в зависимости от сезона.

### Почему одни реки в жаркое лето полнее, а другие мелеют?
Реки снегового питания достигают пика между апрелем и началом лета и мелеют в конце жаркого лета.
Реки с бо́льшей долей ледников в бассейне достигают пика в июле–августе и держатся в жаркие годы:
жара растапливает лёд, который не вернётся. Пример — Ала-Арча (ледники 11 % бассейна) и Кара-Балта
(меньше 1 %), две реки в 50 км друг от друга. Проекция стока рек до 2040 года не показана: модель
ледников реагирует на тёплое лето примерно вдвое сильнее, чем измеренные ледники.

### Насколько надёжны данные об осадках?
Осадки — самое слабое звено данных. Сетка хорошо повторяет влажные и сухие годы (r 0,78–0,89 по
сезонам), но к 1990-м она на 5–13 процентных пунктов влажнее осадкомеров в тех же точках. Поэтому
осадки каждого года сравниваются с соседними 30 годами. В будущем модели в большинстве сезонов
расходятся даже в знаке изменения.

### Как связаться с Кейджи Лабс?
Общественный фонд Кейджи Лабс, Бишкек: azizkin@kglabs.org, +996 990 777 700 (WhatsApp).

## Кыргызча кыскача

Бир карта Кыргызстандын суусун түзгөн катарларды бириктирет: 1879-жылдан бери метеостанциялар,
1910-жылдан бери гидропосттор, 1950-жылдан бери 10 км климаттык тор жана 2040-жылга чейин 14
климаттык модель. Ар бир мезгил жылыды; эң тез жаз өзгөрдү. Кыргызча версия:
https://kglabs.org/kyrgyzwateratlas/?lang=ky

## Sources

- ERA5-Land monthly reanalysis (Muñoz-Sabater et al. 2021, Copernicus Climate Change Service, via Google Earth Engine)
- CMIP6 climate models: 14 GCMs, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5
- Weather stations: Williams & Konovalov (2008), NSIDC G02174
- River discharge: Kyrgyzhydromet yearbooks via CA-discharge (Marti et al. 2023, CC BY 4.0)
- HydroBASINS and HydroLAKES (Lehner & Grill 2013; Messager et al. 2016)
- Copernicus GLO-30 elevation, from which KG Labs traced the river network (90 m flow routing)
- Glacier outlines: RGI 7.0 (RGI 7.0 Consortium 2023)
- Towns: OpenStreetMap (© OpenStreetMap contributors, ODbL)

## Reuse

The atlas maps, figures and summaries are free to use with a reference. Cite as:
KG Labs Public Foundation (2026). Kyrgyzstan Water Atlas: seasons, rivers and rain, 1879–2040.
https://kglabs.org/kyrgyzwateratlas/

The underlying sources keep their own terms (for example CA-discharge, CC BY 4.0; OpenStreetMap, ODbL).